FTR's Freight•cast forecasting model explained

FTR's Freight•cast is a leading freight forecasting model first constructed in the 1980s and significantly enhanced in the late 1990s—and has continued to evolve with ongoing updates. It was built by estimating the movement of virtually all weighted goods in the economy, capturing comprehensive freight transportation flows across the United States.  

Unlike most other sources our data isn’t a survey of activity from a particular portion of the marketplace. Our data covers the entire U.S. domestic freight transportation system. Whether it moves by water, rail, air, pipeline, or truck, our Freight•cast model is able to measure the economy’s impact on transportation demand. This enables us to do a unique piece of work: forecasting transportation demand by commodity by mode by equipment type.

On an annual basis we collect publicly available production data (mined, logged, raised, produced, etc.) from nearly every sector of the U.S. economy (much of it government sourced) and convert it into a tonnage amount. Our extensive research into transportation flows allows us to turn that raw data into an estimate of transportation demand for the whole market. We then split that data into specific commodities, modes, lengths-of-haul, ton-miles, loadings, equipment types, etc.

Each month the Freight•cast generates forecasts across 85,000 series and over 13 million data points. These forecasts track economic changes, giving companies the evidence they need to identify market trends, understand current conditions, and plan confidently for the future.