The map assesses state-level impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. trucking industry. Questions are answered below.
View the map at www.FTRintel.com/Coronavirus.
UPDATED: May 3, 2021
What is the methodology being used to generate the Truck Spot Rate and Truck Spot Loads Dashboard?
FTR's analysis examines historical seasonal behavior and normalizes the data to represent how the trucking environment would look in a typical growth economy. The color variations shown on the map indicate how the latest seven days compare to that normal behavior.
Because of inherent data variability, we define “normal” as a range rather than a specific number. A state identified as “normal” falls within that range. Other designations gauge the deviation above or below the normal range. The dashboard looks at rates, and now volumes as well, by state showing the state both as the origin and as the destination.
What is this data telling me?
The map assesses state-level impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. trucking industry by four equipment types – dry van, refrigerated, flatbed, and specialized – using Truckstop.com spot market data and analysis done by FTR. The map reflects the most recent seven days and are updated regularly.
The map shows whether or not truck spot rates and volumes are being impacted by COVID-19. It tells us if spot rates and volumes are higher or lower than what the industry would normally expect at this time of year in a normal economy.
What do the ranges mean?
UPDATED May 3, 2021
The ranges for each of the “buckets” are a calculation from normal. These buckets are discussed below.
Because of inherent data variability, we define “normal” as a range rather than a specific number. A state identified as “normal” falls within that range. Other designations (seen below) gauge the deviation above or below the normal range. The dashboard looks at rates and volumes by state showing the state both as the origin and as the destination.
Here are how the ranges are broken down for rates (highest to lowest)
• More than 45% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 35% - 45% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 25% - 35% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 15% - 25% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 10% to 15% above the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• 5% t0 10% above the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• Normal is a range of +/- 5% from the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• 5% to 10% below the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• 10% to 15% below the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• More than 15% below the normalized number for a 7 day period.
Here are how the ranges are broken down for loads
• More than 90% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 70% - 90% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 50% - 70% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 30% - 50% above the normalized number for a 7 day period. (New bucket 4.3.21)
• 20% to 30% above the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• 10% t0 20% above the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• Normal is a range of +/- 10% from the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• 10% to 20% below the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• 20% to 30% below the normalized number for a 7 day period.
• More than 30% below the normalized number for a 7 day period.
How do we define a "normal” economic environment?
Because of inherent data variability, we define “normal” as a range rather than a specific number. Normal for rates is a range of +/- 5% deviation from an expected rate in a traditional economic environment. Normal for loads is a range of +/- 10% deviation from expected volume in a traditional economic environment. A state identified as “normal” falls within those ranges.
These are the ranges of data that the industry would normally expect to see at any given point of time, based upon the seasonality. This metric does not indicate a specific change in truck rates or volumes. The seasonality is derived from data from the previous 5 years (prior to the pandemic) for the same 7 days of the corresponding time-frame. This allows for understanding seasonality. The data is then calibrated to the last known month that was not impacted by COVID-19, which was January 2020.
Does a number above normal mean that rates or volumes are rising?
No. It is only showing that a truck spot rate or volume is above what the industry would typically expect and by how much.
Does a number below normal mean that rates or volumes are falling?
No. It is only showing that a truck spot rate or volume is below what the industry would typically expect and by how much.
How current is the information?
The data is collected daily. It is published within 48 hours of the close of business the following business day.
How far back does the data go?
The dashboard only allows you to go back to the first week of January 2020. However, the underlying data contains datasets going back to January 2014.
What is an “origin” definition?
It is the spot metric listed for a load where the load originated in that state.
What is a “destination” definition?
It is the spot metric listed for a load where the load terminated (or was delivered) in that state.
What is a spot rate?
It is the posted dollar per mile for that load to be moved. The data being used is from Truckstop.com.
Why do origins and destinations look different on the map for the same period of time?
Many loads originate (origin) in one state and are terminated (destination) in another state. As such, we would not expect the origins and destinations to look the same for any given state.
Can I look at different states and compare them?
No. Do not compare states to each other. States are benchmarked to their own normal.
What value do I get out of looking at the origin and destination impacts for a given state?
It can help quickly identify imbalances in prices or volumes as compared to normal levels for a given state on a daily basis. In a typical economic environment, we would expect to see both origin and destination levels to show up as normal on the dashboard.
What is the definition of Dry Van?
An enclosed, rectangular, box trailer that carries general (dry) freight.
What is the definition of Refrigerated Van?
A refrigerated and insulated van used to transport temperature-sensitive freight.
What is the definition of Flatbed?
A flat-surfaced, open, trailer with no enclosure or doors.
What is the definition of Specialized?
There is a wide assortment of specialized trailers that are highly engineered for specific purposes (i.e. auto hauler, livestock, oversized, power only)